For many, American greatness is measured by its industrial might. However, a much more critical factor must be considered. America can only be great if there are enough Americans to keep the country running. In this regard, current trends are ominous.
In 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau projected the likely direction of the U.S. population over the twenty-first century. The first line in its report predicted, “The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100. By 2100, the total U.S. resident population is projected to increase by only 9.7% from 2022, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population projections released today.”
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At first glance, that news didn’t sound ominous. According to the 2020 Census, the total population of the United States was 331,449,281, an increase of roughly 23 million over 2010. To have 366 million at the end of the century, even if there is a slight decrease during the last years of the century, doesn’t seem disastrous.
However, a subsequent passage showed that the Census Bureau projected a substantial number of immigrants. A separate “low-immigration scenario” projected that the population would peak in 2043 and then drop to 319 million by 2100. The “zero-immigration scenario” was even worse. It showed the decline beginning in 2024, with the population declining to 226 million in 2100. The last time the population was that low was in 1980.
However, many parts of Europe and Asia are even worse off.
An Economic Uppercut
Some in the environmentalist movement see such a decline as a reason for hope. For the rest of America, though, it is disastrous. The most effective way to chart the decline is to divide its effects into two broad categories: economic and social.
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The most apparent economic problem is a labor shortage. On an individual level, the effects are obvious—the inability to get skilled work done and the replacement, when possible, of humans with machines.
During what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called “The Great Resignation” in 2021-2022, a total of 97.8 million workers left their jobs. Of course, this figure includes many people who left more than one job over that period. Nonetheless, it created real problems in high-demand, high-skill professions like nursing and low-wage, low-skill areas like hospitality and retailing.
An Aging Population
Of course, labor shortages contribute to a myriad of economic woes. It limits business expansion, contributing to a stagnant economy. Such situations typically lead to decreased tax revenues.
Perhaps, though the most significant economic problems relate to problems of an aging population—two are especially difficult. In 1960, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 5.1 workers were paying in for each Social Security recipient. That number has already dropped to 2.8. By 2050, it will erode still further. Under such conditions, it will be difficult for the government to collect enough to pay its obligations to retirees.
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Closely related to the Social Security issue is that of healthcare. For many, the cost of healthcare for the last few years of their lives far exceeds the entire cost of their healthcare up to that point. These facts justified the Medicare program and its low-income companion, Medicaid. Medicare is paid out of the same shrinking pool as Social Security, and Medicaid uses conventional tax dollars. Neither can be expected to prosper in a society with a shrinking population.
A Shrinking Society
The economic problems are complex, the social issues may prove insurmountable.
Many of those problems are connected to the shrinking family. One facet of this situation is the number of those with no siblings (“only children”), which has expanded rapidly. In 2008, the Census Bureau found, “The percent of women ages 40–44 with one child ever born increased from 9.6 percent in 1980 to about 17 percent beginning in the 1990s and continuing into the 2000s.” Since the conditions that caused such a change have only become more prevalent in the following years, there is no reason to believe that this trend has declined or even that it may have leveled off.
While many “only children” go on to lead productive and happy lives, that condition carries significant costs—both for the individual and society as a whole. The first is a substantial decrease in their relationships with blood relatives of similar age. Given that these dynamics tend to run in extended families, such children not only have no brothers or sisters but also very few, if any, aunts, uncles or cousins. Therefore, they are isolated from many nurturing relationships.
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Unfortunately, this relative isolation often repeats itself in adult life. Having had few confidants as children, they may be less trusting as adults. Not having shared the protection and nurture of loving extended families, they are less likely to place marriage and family life high on their lists of priorities. Such isolation often leads to isolation and a general sense of hopelessness.
Do Solutions Exist?
Of course, these are only trends, not certainties. Some such people do raise large families of their own. However, these are rare. In this selfish world, it is far more commonplace for those from large families to have relatively few children.
These are complex problems without easy solutions. Ultimately, the only possible way to restore society is to turn back to the morals and lifestyles of generations past. There is no easy way out of the demographic winter that is fast approaching.
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