Lying nearly 650 miles above the Arctic Circle, Svalbard, Norway, boasts beautiful mountains, glaciers and fjords. It is also the home of hundreds of polar bears and a hot spot to view the Northern Lights. This Norwegian archipelago, with fewer than 3,000 residents, is fast turning into a geopolitical hot spot thanks to aggression from Russia and China.
Svalbard enjoys a peculiar status because of a 1920 Spitsbergen treaty that gave Norway sovereignty over the islands but with one curious stipulation: the other signatory states, including then-communist Russia, were free to exploit resources and conduct research—but not militarize it.
Now, Russia and China (not a signatory) are using the arrangement to push for control of the Arctic’s trade routes and increase their military presence. Norway’s membership in NATO further complicates this.
For example, a Chinese delegation recently visited Svalbard to meet with Russian officials. The two sides discussed the redevelopment of Pyramiden, an abandoned Soviet-era coal mining settlement now inhabited by Arctic foxes and polar bears. With China’s help, Russia would like to develop Pyramiden into a research center with the hope of attracting tourists to a kind of “Soviet Disneyland.”
Thus, Svalbard stands at the crossroads on how to act in the power dynamics converging on one of the world’s most sensitive areas. Tensions in Svalbard have never been more strained since World War II.
The Russians promoted parades on one island showcasing a military presence, and are warning Norway not to challenge their presence. A Russian attorney has even proposed to build a prison for terrorists on the archipelago.
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On its part, China has shown interest in acquiring land on the archipelago. Officials have proposed building a laser research station. Norwegian officials worry about its use for spying.
Arctic trade routes and unexploited resources make Svalbard so important. The area is believed to harbor oil, natural gas and other minerals. Moscow and Beijing are eager to use the Northern Sea Route to bypass traditional chokepoints at the Suez Canal and Malacca Strait.
Both Russia and China are active in the Arctic. Russia has reactivated some of its old Soviet-era bases on its mainland. China, which is 900 miles away from the Arctic Circle, is now calling itself a “near-Arctic” nation and building new icebreakers to keep once-icebound routes open.
Svalbard is particularly well-placed at the Bear Gap, a key sea route between the Norwegian mainland and the archipelago. Russia’s Northern Fleet and submarine base are located on the nearby Kola Penisula. NATO officials fear that in any conflict, Russia would shut the Bear Gap to deny entry to U.S. and NATO ships.
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Norway has reacted by dramatically increasing its military spending on new submarines, surveillance drones and space capabilities to peer over the Arctic. Intelligence sharing with the U.S. increased, and Norwegian police now operate more visibly in Russian settlements on Svalbard.
Initially, Svalbard attracted people not for its geopolitical importance but for its coal mining. Although Russia closed the Pyramiden mine in 1998, it is still mining in Barentsburg to maintain its toehold on the archipelago.
More recently, suspicion has grown that Russia is up to more than mining. In January 2022, a suspected Russian fishing trawler was accused of cutting a critical undersea internet cable connecting Svalbard after crisscrossing the same location over 20 times. Norwegian authorities have yet to close the investigation, but their security officials believe the damage was deliberate.
Russia staged a military-style parade in the majority Russian town of Barentsburg (pop. 300) for the first time last year. The parade included about 50 vehicles and moved down the main street. This action broke the 1920 treaty banning “warlike” activities on Svalbard. Russia was fined for unauthorized use of a Mi-8 helicopter flying overhead.
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This year, Russian flags replaced Norwegian flags on a coal-loading crane in Pyramiden harbor.
In February, Yuri Trutnev, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, sent a warning to Norway that Russian rights on Svalbard must not be challenged as it is “a fight for our sovereignty, a fight for the rights of Russia and Russians.”
Norwegian officials have also noted Chinese activity around the islands.
In July, the Norwegian government blocked a $300 million land sale, citing worries it would land in Chinese hands. Norwegian officials shared internal documents showing the Chinese have been trying to buy up land and offering to establish a laser research station that would use lasers to create 3-D maps applicable to autonomous vehicles and military uses.
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The Norwegian security agency Preparedness Services and Training (PST) reported that the Chinese research activities on Svalbard “may normalize a Chinese presence, paving the way for intelligence operations.”
While the risk of a direct military clash remains uncertain, Svalbard is uniquely exposed to any bold moves by Russia that could further its long-term goals of dividing the West and weakening NATO. Historically, Russia has been cautious about involving China in the Arctic, viewing the region as its own territory.
However, the power dynamics have shifted since the onset of the Ukraine War, tilting in favor of China. This shift is leading Russia to grow more economically and politically reliant on China. There is a good chance that Moscow will be compelled to enhance cooperation with Beijing in areas it was once hesitant to explore. If NATO decides to turn a blind eye to the developments in Svalbard, it will pay a heavy price for such an apathetic attitude.
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